Monday, January 14, 2013

Why the Patriots will win the Super Bowl (I think)

Yes I am a Patriots fan and obviously will be rooting for them this week when they host Baltimore in the AFC Championship for the second straight year.  But Bill Belichick's team really didn't deserve to win last year and got lucky at the end of the 2012 AFC Championship.  This year I am confident in my Pats, that not only will they find a way to beat a Baltimore team that's pretty darn good and oh by the way, the team I picked to win the Super Bowl before the season began, but also take home the Lombardi trophy two weeks later.

I obviously wouldn't be shocked if the Ravens pulled it out and got to the Super Bowl one more time for the retiring Ray Lewis.  Joe Flacco was simply incredible in getting Baltimore back in the game late Saturday in the Divisional Round and that 70 yarder was fantastic!  He played better than Tom Brady in last year's AFC Championship as well, but he and the Ravens still didn't win the game.

Sorry, it's tangent time.  Jim Boeheim is on Sportscenter this morning.  At first I was going to rant on why he's talking to them when he barely speaks to the Syracuse media, but actually he's giving the same responses to Hannah Storm that he gives to all of us.  We'll see if she mentions James Southerland, who was deemed ineligible by the school prior to this past Saturday's game against Vanilla-Nova.  Wow, BOEHEIM mentioned Southerland!!  Apparently there's a chance he'll be back this season and Boeheim says he's been working really hard.  Sorry, I just rolled my eyes, not because I don't believe how hard Southerland works, just that if he's worked so hard, how did he become ineligible?  The Orange are going to Louisville on Saturday and the Cardinals should be the #1 ranked team, since they were #3 last week, and both #1 Duke and #2 Michigan lost.  JB says there's 10-15 teams that have a chance to win it all this year and 5-6 more that are good enough to make the Final Four.

Anyway, back to the Patriots.  Their defense has been their big issue the last few years, pretty much since they lost to the Giants in Super Bowl XLII.  But that unit has improved a lot in the past year and they have some big play potential, as shown against Houston when Rob Ninkovich made that Tecmo Super Bowl-style leaping interception.  But even more important is how good their running game has become, with Stevan Ridley, Danny Woodhead and Shane Vereen stepping up.  Well, Woodhead got hurt yesterday, so Vereen broke out with three total touchdowns and picked up over 120 total yards.  Ridley was one of the mainstays for my 12-2 fantasy team this year, the Rick Rollers!  Hmmm, that gives me an idea: Check it this out if you have a chance!  It's the perfect mix of the RR, Family Guy and Back to the Future!

New England did lose uber-Tight End Rob Gronkowski to another injury against the Texans, but they've still got Aaron Hernandez, another of my fantasy guys.  (Though after a great regular season, I lost to Jill Reale in the playoff semis!  Had to settle for third place, d'oh!)  Tommy Terrific has plenty of weapons with which to choose, so that shouldn't be a problem.  I expect a close game against Baltimore, though, as the Pats defense would have to make some pretty big plays to go up as big as they did against Houston.

If they do take care of business in another AFC Championship game, the Pats would get the winner of San Fransisco and Atlanta, who face off in the NFC Championship game.  I'd love to see the Falcons personally, with former Boston College QB Matt Ryan and future Hall of Fame TE Tony Gonzalez.  But I also think they're a better matchup for the New England than the 49ers, who have a very tough defense, to go along with quite the prolific offense, with Colin Kaepernick officially arriving on the playoff scene.  (Did you see what he did to Green Bay?  He set a new QB playoff record with 181 rushing yards, and also passed for 263 more, scoring four total touchdowns!)  Even so, a matchup between the Patriots and 49ers could be very intriguing as well, with both Bill Belichick and Jim Harbaugh guaranteed to throw some interesting plays in there, just to throw the other one off.  But I would give the advantage to Belichick, who's been there plenty of times before.

So yes, I'm a biased Patriots fan, but I'm just feeling it.  New England is going to win the Super Bowl to solidify the Hall of Fame careers of Brady and Belichick... At least that's what I think is going to happen.  Besides, the Patriots currently have the longest title drought of any of Boston's pro sports teams.  If they win again, then the world will make sense again... because then the Red Sox will be the ones with the longest Boston drought.

Friday, January 11, 2013

HOF Fallout

I'm not surprised that no one got the necessary 75 percent needed from the writers to be elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame.  I was hoping to see at least Jack Morris get in, but that didn't happen.  Instead we have no one going to Cooperstown from the writers ballot for the first time since 1996.  What's worse, with the new format of the veterans ballot, the three inductees for the class of 2013 all died about 70 years ago.

The real losers in this situation are the good folks of Cooperstown, who depend on all the tourists who come in for Induction Weekend.  With a class of Jacob Ruppert, Hank O'Day and Deacon White, you can't expect too many people to make the trek from all over the country this year.  The Hall is planning something extra, like honoring guys such as Lou Gehring and Rogers Hornsby, who didn't have an induction during wartime, but I doubt it will bring in too many fans.  What they need is a big turnout by the returning Hall of Famers, who should make themselves available to the public as much as possible.

Most members of the media have been blaming the writers for not electing anyone this year.  Why?  Because they didn't elect guys who used performance enhancing drugs to become great?  Yep.  What does that say about you, that you actually want cheaters in the Baseball Hall of Fame?  It's deplorable and anyone that says someone like Sammy Sosa deserves to be in Cooperstown is just not getting it.  I also hope Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro never get anywhere near the Hall and based on the low vote totals for all three, I think that's a safe bet.

Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds, however, both received about 36%, and depending on how much added support they get in subsequent years, they may both get in someday.  In fact, as I said in my last blog entry, even without the PEDs, they would've had HOF numbers.  But it's the way both disgraced the game that will take them a long time, if ever, to get elected.

Here's my question.  Why now, are people saying we should ignore the honesty and integrity clause as stated to me last week by Hall President Jeff Idelson and just let the cheaters in?  While I agree that figuring out everyone who was a user is way too difficult, at least we know Bonds, Clemens, Sosa, McGwire and Palmeiro did.  So if we're not allowing Pete Rose and "Shoeless" Joe Jackson, two of the greatest ever who made mistakes that (at least in the case of Rose, who knows about Shoeless Joe) have shown remorse for what they did, why should we let in these guys who won't even admit their guilt?  (I guess McGwire did admit it, but his non-PED numbers don't impress me enough to say he's a Hall of Famer.)

I guess it just shows where we are as a society, cheat to win, eh?  I say no to them all, and even though I said in my last blog I said I would vote for Mike Piazza, not anymore.  The reason is sad, though, because Jose Canseco implicated him.  I hate Canseco, but how sad is it that he's the one telling the most truth about the Steroid Era in baseball, which by the way, is still going on, folks.  We may never truly get by it, as long as players are continuing to find ways to cheat the system.  But at least the players union has officially agreed to in season HGH testing and that's a great step to moving on.  I hope I'm wrong about Piazza, though it doesn't really matter what I think.  Besides, his 57.8% on this year's ballot will likely go up in the next few years and my guess is he'll get it eventually.

Here's something else to remember about the Baseball Writers:  they rarely ever elect anyone in their first year eligible, unless they're a very special player.  Craig Biggio may have been a 3,000 hit guy, but I think his 68.2% this year had more to do with it being his first year on the ballot, as opposed to accusations of PED use.  Biggio made a statement saying he thought the voters were lumping him in with the steroid guys, but I don't think that's the case.  I'm sure there are some who do have doubts about Biggio, mainly because he shared a locker room with admitted user Ken Caminiti, but I'm pretty sure next year he'll get at least 75%.

Another likely inductee in the future is Curt Schilling, whose 38.8% was better than Clemens or Bonds!  It usually takes pitchers longer to get into Cooperstown anyway, but my money's on Schill to get in eventually.  (I wouldn't be surprised to see former Red Sox aces Schilling and Pedro Martinez go in the same year.)  Jeff Bagwell's 59.6% in his third year may get him in eventually as well.  Like Biggio, Bagwell is often associated with Caminiti, which has hurt his chances as well.

My biggest problem with this year's vote is the non-PED guys who were slighted, namely Morris, Lee Smith and even Fred McGriff, who got less votes than Bonds and Clemens.  He'll never make it in, even though I think his numbers, which are completely clean, should be good enough.  I'm not a big fan of Tim Raines being a Hall of Famer, but with 52.2% in just his sixth year on the ballot, he'll probably make it in eventually.  Originally I felt that if Morris didn't make it in this year, he'd have no chance next year.  But then again, based on how this year's vote went, the only first ballot guy that's a definite I would say is Greg Maddux.  There's a chance Frank Thomas, Tom Glavine and even Mike Mussina and Jeff Kent, could all get in, but based on voting history, I would not be surprised if all four were held back.

Besides, if Biggio and even Morris get enough for election next year, along with Maddux, that's a pretty good class of 2014 and that's without even considering the veterans ballot.  In 2014 the Expansion Era committee will be back and four of the great managers of the era will be up for the first time: Joe Torre, Bobby Cox, Tony LaRussa and Lou Pinella.  So the fact is the Class of 2014 will be the one that will be the big one some expected this year.  I guess it's just too bad that big manager crop for the vets committee wasn't this year, because that would've been a lot better.

But once again, I feel for the people of Cooperstown.  It's going to be rough getting people to show up to honor three very old school inductees.  It's too bad they didn't reinstate Shoeless Joe this year and have him be elected by the vets committee.  Can you imagine Jackson's family flanked by Ray Liotta, Kevin Costner and James Earl Jones in an homage to "Field of Dreams?"  That would've been the perfect draw this summer.

Sunday, January 6, 2013

The Most Controversial HOF Ballot in History

There's no question in my mind that the best part about covering sports at WKTV is that Cooperstown is in our market.  There's no place closer and the folks in town watch us more than any other news station.  Cooperstown, I've said many times, is my "happiest place on earth," (Between April and October anyway) because it's known, whether true or not, as the "Birthplace of Baseball."  I've covered every type of HOF related event in the Coop and I always feel blessed when I get to talk with President Jeff Idelson and the many baseball legends, whether they're enshrined in the Hall's Gallery or not.

In just a few days, the Hall will announce the results of the most controversial writers ballot in history.  Some of the top guys in the modern era of baseball are eligible for the first time, but many of them are considered cheaters, for their alleged use of performance enhancing drugs.  Some have the bad luck of being on this ballot.  Guilt by association may hurt two that should be easy first ballot Hall of Famers.  There's also a few holdovers from last year's ballot that have pretty good chances to make it as well.  So I decided, like many sports fans like to do, to figure out whom I would vote for, if I had the chance.

First and foremost, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Sammy Sosa.  All three obviously have the stats to be first ballot Hall of Famers, but because of PED allegations none will get in this year.  Sosa I don't think will ever get in, because his numbers are pretty much all linked to cheating, whether through PEDs or even corked bats (he was caught with at least one during his career).  Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro, who have each been on the ballot a few years, are in the same boat.  Bonds and Clemens, however, both had monster numbers before either touched anything extra.  I honestly feel that both deserve to get in.  But I wouldn't vote for either this year, because of what Mr. Idelson told me when I interviewed him this week, reminding me about Rule 5 in the voting guidelines: "Voting shall be based on player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played."  Yes both Bonds and Clemens deserve to get in, but it wouldn't be on my vote this year.  (Probably not next year either, when Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and Frank Thomas will be first timers, or the year after that, when Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz are first timers.)

I feel differently about Mike Piazza and Craig Biggio, however.  I feel bad, because each are the best at their position of this era, but each are also quietly suspected of using, though no one's ever officially accused them.  Piazza has the best offensive numbers of any catcher, EVER.  427 HRs, 396 as a catcher, including nine seasons of hitting at least 30.  His career batting average was .308 and he drove in 1,335 RBI, six times hitting over 100 in a season, with the second longest streak in MLB history, 15 straight games with at least one RBI, in 2000.  Only nine others hit 400 HR, hit over .300 for their careers and didn't strike out more than 100 times in a season.  Among those names are Ted Williams, Stan Musial, Lou Gehrig, Hank Aaron and Babe Ruth.  Piazza was also a 12 time All-Star, the MVP of the game in 1996 and the NL Rookie of the Year in 1993.  Biggio had over 3,000 hits, 668 of which were doubles, putting him fifth all-time in that department.  He drove in 1,175 runs, scoring 1,844 and his 146 in 1997 were the most since 1932.  He's also the "King of the HBP," having been hit 287 times, the most in the modern era, second all-time.  A seven time All-Star, Biggio also won four gold gloves at second base.

The problem is Piazza and Biggio both seem too good to be true, even if both are 100% clean.  Biggio was close in the Houston clubhouse with admitted user Ken Caminiti, as well as Jeff Bagwell, who has been rumored to have been too close with Caminiti as well.  Bagwell is another story, as it's his third year on the ballot and solely by the numbers, he should be in Cooperstown as well.  But his numbers (449 HR, 1,529 RBI, 1,401 BB, .297 career AVG) just feel dirty to me.  Bagwell I wouldn't vote for this year.  But Piazza and Biggio I would.  MIKE'S VOTE: MIKE PIAZZA AND CRAIG BIGGIO

Curt Schilling.  Yikes.  Where do I begin?  I don't think it would be possible for me to impartial when it comes to this guy.  Whether or not the bloody sock in 2004 was a fake, Schil was one of the guys that delivered a championship to the Red Sox and I can never thank him enough for that.  He was also on the title team in 2007, though far less effective then.  In fact, his Hall of Fame credentials are really more from his NL days, with the Phillies and Diamondbacks.  When and if Schilling does make it someday, it will ignite some fantastic hat debates.  (Which of the three should he go in as?  Hey, you'll hear it this year between the Mets and Dodgers if Piazza gets in as well.)  As for Schilling's numbers: 216 wins, 3.46 ERA, 1.137 WHIP, 3,116 strikeouts (15th all-time), 20 shutouts, an 11-2 postseason record with a 2.23 ERA in those games.  He also had a fantastic 4.38-to-1 strikeouts to walks ratio in the regular season.  His three world series titles, two with Boston and one with Arizona in which he was co-MVP, speak for themselves and he was also in a fourth with Philadelphia.  But believe it or not, I also invoke Rule 5 with Schilling, at least for this season.  He's actually lacking in integrity in my eyes, whether it be "shilling" (pardon the pun) for GW Bush the day after winning the title in 2004 or his truly awful management of his video game company, in which he laid everyone off.  If I'm going to punish Bonds and Clemens, I'm just going to have to do it to Schilling as well.  Ouch, that hurts.

Jack Morris is a very interesting case.  It's his 14th year on the ballot and thanks to the strong pitchers on it for the first time next year, if he doesn't make it here, he's done.  Morris earned 66.7% of the needed 75% last year, which means he should get enough this year.  Does he deserve it?  254 wins, with at least 20 three times, 2,478 strikeouts, 28 shutouts, a 1.296 WHIP, a no-hitter in 1984 and five All-Star selections.  But Morris, like Schilling, was a big game pitcher in the postseason, where he technically won four championships, though he was really on great in 1984 for Detroit and in 1991 for Minnesota.  (He was part of the rotation for Toronto in 1992, but wasn't that good, then didn't even make the postseason roster in 1993.)  His ten shutout innings for the Twins in Game 7 of the 1991 Fall Classic is one of the great pitching performances ever.  It's for that reason I would vote for him.  Yes Schilling has better numbers, but he'll have his chance again down the road.  This is it for Morris and I'd like to see him get in.  MIKE'S VOTE: JACK MORRIS

Lee Smith is another toughie, as Dennis Eckersley was really the best reliever of that era, but had to convert from being a starter.  Smith was consistently the best reliever, pretty much all through the 80s, though he didn't break 40 saves until late in his career, 1991.  I never understood why the Red Sox got him in 1988, then swept him out by 1990.  He was a lot more reliable than his replacement, Jeff Reardon, but for whatever reason, he went to St. Louis, where he revitalized his career.  His 478 saves over 18 seasons were the most until Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera surpassed him and he finished 802 games, an MLB record.  His career ERA was 3.03, WHIP 1.256 and he struck out 1,251 batters.  He was a seven time All-Star and holds the saves records for both the Cubs and Cardinals, two bitter rivals.  You can debate whether relievers belong in the HOF if you want, but I say this is one guy who surpasses them all and if I could, I'd give him the thumbs up.  MIKE'S VOTE: LEE SMITH

There's no question that Tim Raines has great credentials as well.  A .294 career batting average and the NL champ in 1986, 2,605 hits, 1,330 walks, 1,571 runs scored (leading the league in both 1983 and 1987) as well as 430 doubles.  But it's stolen bases that are where Raines excelled, with 808 in his career, leading the NL every year between 1981 and 1984.  But that number only put him fifth on the all-time list.  Raines was a seven time All-Star and three time World Series champion, but only two of those titles came as a player, and it was when he was really more a reserve with the Yankees in 1996 and 1998.  I've never really thought Raines was quite good enough for the Hall and if I had a vote, I wouldn't give it to him.  The same goes for Julio Franco and Kenny Lofton, who both appear on the ballot for the first time.  Neither had as many hits, runs, or stolen bases as Raines, so they're both a no on my list.

Some people might make a case for David Wells, with 239 wins, 2,201 strikeouts, a 1.266 WHIP, two World Series titles and a perfect game in 1998.  But his 4.13 ERA and my general dislike for "Boomer" could never result in a yes vote for him, especially over Morris and Schilling.

Dale Murphy has no chance, though his kids have been campaigning hard, given that it's his last year of eligibility.  But even given how great a guy everyone says he is, his numbers just aren't good enough.  398 HR, with six seasons of at least 30, 1,266 RBI, five of at least 100, 1,197 runs scored and just a .265 career batting average.  He was an All-Star seven times and won five gold gloves.  It amazes me that he won the NL MVP twice, but I guess it's because offensive numbers were pretty low in 1982 and 1983.  I compare Murphy to my favorite player all-time, former Red Sox Dwight Evans, who was dropped from the ballot after just three years, in 1999.  "Dewey" hit 385 HR, 1,384 RBI, 1,470 runs scored, 483 doubles and also walked 1,470 times, nearly 500 times more than Murphy.  He only made three All-Star appearances, but won eight gold gloves.  There's no way Murphy is a Hall of Famer if Dewey isn't.

Now Fred McGriff on the other hand, is a different story.  I've never been a huge fan of "The Crime Dog," but always had a lot of respect for him and certainly never thought of him as a PED guy.  His numbers always seemed not impressive enough to warrant speculation, either a cheater or a Hall of Famer.  But as I broke down his credentials, I saw that okay, his 493 HR were seven shy of 500, but he hit at least 30 in ten different seasons.  He hit 1,550 RBI, with at least 100 in eight different seasons.  He walked 1,305 times, scored 1,349 runs, hit 441 doubles and was a career .284 hitter.  He was an All-Star five times, winning the MVP of the game in 1994, right before the strike by the way, and won a World Series title with Atlanta in 1995.  I like those numbers, though he's never going to make it this year after getting just 23.9% last year.  That's less than Alan Trammell and Edgar Martinez who are far less impressive and not even worthy of researching in my opinion.  McGriff, however, is and I would give him a yes.  (Though like Piazza and Schilling, his hat discussion would be crazy!  Five years with Toronto, Four and a half with both Atlanta and Tampa, plus a few years with San Diego, the Cubs and the Dodgers mixed in.  Oy!)  MIKE'S VOTE: FRED MCGRIFF

So looking back, I would've voted for five guys this year: Mike Piazza, Craig Biggio, Jack Morris, Lee Smith and Fred McGriff.  Curt Schilling might make my "ballot" in the future, and who knows, maybe Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens will as well, but not this time.  In any case, it will be fascinating to see how the real voters see all these guys.  We'll find out Wednesday at 2 p.m. live on MLB Network!

Tuesday, January 1, 2013

Bills need some Lovie

After parting ways with head coach Chan Gailey and his entire staff, including former Super Bowl winning Defensive Coordinator Dave Wannstedt, Monday, the Bills are now looking for a new leader. I certainly don't know everything about the NFL and what it takes to build a winner, but I'd quite frankly love to see Da Bills go after Lovie Smith, who was dismissed by Da Bears Monday as well.  His record isn't exactly impressive, at 84-66 including playoffs, in his nine seasons in Chicago, but he was a defensive coach before taking the top job in the Windy City.  That's perfect for a Bills team that has a lot of defensive talent, but still has some big holes to fill.

Smith, by the way, has been to a pair of Super Bowls, one with Chicago, in which he lost to Peyton Manning and the Colts.  The second was as a Defensive Coordinator with the Rams, when they lost to Tom Brady and the Patriots in my favorite Super Bowl, number XXXVI.  (I wonder why it's my favorite?)  He's rumored to be considering the job in snowy, cold Buffalo, though he's also reportedly interested in Arizona as well, which if Smith goes by warmer climate, is obviously a no-brainer.  But hopefully that won't be the determining factor.

Smith is likely the leading candidate for any of the other six head coaching vacancies.  Seven teams, including Buffalo, Arizona and Chicago, fired their coaches on 'Black Monday,' with the others being the Chiefs, Browns, Eagles and Chargers.  The Eagles finally divorced themselves from Andy Reid, after 14 seasons and a grand total of ZERO Super Bowl titles, though he did lose one to the Pats.  But then again, I feel bad for Reid, after his son's death back in August.  Norv Turner in San Diego,  however, I don't feel bad for at all.  His six years with the Chargers were actually better than either of his previous head coaching stints, with the Redskins and Raiders, finishing 55-40, but just 24-24 and ZERO playoff appearances over the last three years.  Turner's actually a decent Offensive Coordinator, just not a good head coach.

Neither should be in the Bills immediate plans as Lovie, Ken Whisenhunt, the now former head coach of the Cardinals, as well as current Arizona Defensive Coordinator Ray Horton are the top candidates so far.  Apparently Buffalo will also talk with Broncos Offensive Coordinator Mike McCoy as well as the one and only Doug Marrone, head coach of the Syracuse Orange!!  It would be fantastic, as someone who covers SU on a regular basis, to see Marrone make that jump, though if it's a choice between Smith and Marrone, I'd go with Lovie, since he's got the NFL head coaching experience.

In any case, Russ Brandon is the team's new President and CEO and will oversee GM Buddy Nix, who for now is still employed in Buffalo.  Hopefully the two will get together and find the right person for the job!